Prediction St. Pauli vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 27/09/2025

Preview: Millerntor set for a high-energy clash

The Millerntor-Stadion will be buzzing on 27 September as St. Pauli host Bayer 04 Leverkusen in what promises to be one of the more intriguing fixtures of round 5 of the Bundesliga. Referee Martin Petersen will take charge as these two sides meet in Hamburg, with St. Pauli sitting fifth in the early table and Leverkusen down in eleventh — but the numbers and recent results suggest this will be far from a comfortable away day for the visitors. The home crowd will expect an attacking performance from St. Pauli; their home goals and shot figures underline a team that generates chances and, crucially, has been involved in matches where both nets have bulged.

Form and momentum — who carries the edge?

Formlines paint an interesting picture. St. Pauli arrive after a mixed set of results: they were beaten 2-0 at VfB Stuttgart most recently, but their run includes wins over Augsburg and Hamburger SV and a 3-3 draw with Borussia Dortmund earlier in the month. That sequence highlights both their willingness to attack and a vulnerability at the back — seven goals scored across their fixtures this term with six conceded shows matches rarely stay tight for long.

Bayer Leverkusen have been similarly inconsistent, but with a slightly more potent edge going forward. Recent draws and a 3-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt underline a side capable of finding the net; their last league outing finished 1-1 against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Statistically Leverkusen produce plenty of shots and have a higher corners average and attacks per game, signaling they can dominate phases without necessarily shutting down opponents.

Tactical outlook and match dynamics

Expect open football. St. Pauli’s home numbers — a healthy shots-on-target figure and an aggressive attacks average — combined with Leverkusen’s tendency to be involved in high-scoring contests, point toward a game where both teams will have chances. Clean sheets have been rare for both: St. Pauli have registered just one while Leverkusen none so far, and recent meetings between these sides include a 1-1 draw in April, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Both teams’ recent head-to-head and season trends favor entertaining football rather than a defensive stalemate; the bookies give Leverkusen the narrow edge, but odds leave plenty of room for a lively contest that produces goals.

Recommended betting suggestion: Back the goals market — Both Teams to Score (Yes). This aligns with St. Pauli’s home tendency for both sides to score, Leverkusen’s open, attacking fixtures this season, and the recent 1-1 head-to-head.