Big stage, familiar favourite — Tunisia arrive on paper as clear pick
Rabat’s Annex stadium will be buzzing on 23/12/2025 as Tunisia open their Africa Cup of Nations campaign against Uganda. The setting is ideal for the North Africans: a large venue on Moroccan soil, a group-stage fixture in which Tunisia arrive with momentum from a string of convincing wins and draws in recent friendlies. Their November run included a 3-2 victory over Jordan and a respectable 1-1 draw with Brazil, where Ali Abdi stood out as the best-rated performer against the Seleção. That result, plus a 6-0 win over São Tomé and Príncipe in October, underlines a side comfortable finding the net against lesser opponents while holding its own against superior opposition.
Uganda, meanwhile, come off a bruising 4-0 friendly loss to tournament hosts Morocco, a result that exposed defensive vulnerabilities and will sharpen nerves heading into group play. Prior to that reversal they had a decent stretch — narrow wins over Chad and Botswana and a rebuild of confidence with several positive results — but the heavy defeat in Rabat is hard to ignore. Denis Onyango was the bright spark named best player in that clash, yet the collective test of facing Tunisia’s balanced recent form poses a tougher asking than Uganda have seen in warm-up fixtures.
Form, head-to-head and the numbers that matter
Head-to-head history offers Tunisia further encouragement: the last recorded meeting ended 2-0 in Tunisia’s favour back in 2017. Bookmakers have translated those signals into market pricing: Tunisia are priced as clear favourites at 1.67 for the win, with the draw trading around 3.50 and Uganda a long shot at 5.70. Those odds imply a strong home-side probability and reflect both Tunisia’s recent unbeaten moments and Uganda’s mixed form highlighted by that heavy loss to Morocco.
Expect a tactical, measured start from Tunisia who typically value structure and efficiency, while Uganda could adopt a cautious approach after a chastening friendly — looking to frustrate and counter. The likely narrative is Tunisia controlling possession and probing for openings, with Uganda waiting to exploit space on the break. Given the lack of granular attacking or defensive metrics in the available data, the clearest signal remains the market consensus and recent match outcomes.
For bettors who want to pair systems with insights, it’s wise to balance ambition with discipline: explore soccer betting tips and the choice of markets to pick the right market for your stake, and remember the importance of mindset — consider advice on how to have emotional control when placing bets before committing.
Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — back Tunisia to win at 1.67. Rationale: stronger recent results including a sturdy draw vs Brazil, favourable head-to-head, home-team advantage in Rabat and significantly shorter market odds that reflect a clear probability edge. Stake sensibly and treat this as a value-backed single rather than a high-risk punt.
