Preview: home comfort and recent form set the stage at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Varaždin welcome Gorica to Stadion Anđelko Herjavec on 23 January 2026 in a round 19 clash that promises sparks. The home side arrive buoyant from an eye-catching run of friendlies, most recently a 4-0 demolition of Emirates and a 4-2 win away in Ittifaq, while Gorica come off a 1-0 friendly victory over Zalaegerszegi TE. On league form the two sit close in the table — Varaždin sixth with 23 points and Gorica seventh with 19 — but the underlying numbers hint at a slight edge for the hosts. Varaždin have found 14 of their 22 league goals at home and carry decent attacking momentum into this fixture; their previous meeting in October saw them take a 3-1 win at Gorica, an encouraging H2H note that the home fans will point to.
Tactical shape and statistical nuances to watch
Both teams create a similar volume of danger: Varaždin average 103 attacks per game and Gorica 99.6, with dangerous attacks roughly neck-and-neck. That parity suggests the game will be contested in the final third rather than one side dominating possession. Defensively, Gorica have kept just one clean sheet in the league compared to Varaždin’s four, and both sides have conceded more than they’d like — 25 goals for the hosts and 27 for the visitors. The consequence is a meeting that leans toward goals: both teams registered nine over/2.5 matches in the season so far and mutual BTTS figures sit around the 50–55% mark. Those trends, coupled with Varaždin’s recent scoring in friendlies and their prior 3-1 win in H2H, tilt expectations toward an open game where the hosts are slightly better placed to get the decisive edge.
Betting angle and conclusion
Bookmakers currently price the home win at 2.06, a draw at 3.20 and an away win at 3.45 — odds that reflect a market giving Varaždin the favorites’ tag while acknowledging the risk of a tight contest. Given Varaždin’s recent attacking form, home advantage in Varaždin’s 10,800-capacity Stadion Anđelko Herjavec and Gorica’s limited clean-sheet record, the best single-market play is a wager on the home side to win. It’s a balanced selection: value in backing the hosts at around 2.06, but not reckless optimism — the market’s implied probability of roughly 48.5% matches the small but tangible edge the data suggests.
For readers wanting to refine entries into goal markets or time their stake, resources such as The right time to place bets on goal markets can be useful, and for deeper pre-match modelling consider practical guidance in Learn about some of the tools that can help with analysis.
Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — back Varaždin to win (Home) at 2.06. The pick leans on home scoring form, superior recent results in H2H and friendlies, and Gorica’s vulnerability to conceding away from home. Play with disciplined stake sizing and consider hedging if the match starts evenly.
