Prediction VfB Stuttgart vs Heidenheim 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 05/10/2025

Match preview: Stuttgart seeks response at MHPArena

VfB Stuttgart return to the MHPArena on 5 October carrying the weight of a mixed week. Fresh off a 2-0 defeat away to Basel in the Europa League, the Swabians will be desperate to steady the ship in front of a home crowd of more than 60,000. Stuttgart arrive with five league rounds behind them and sit fifth in the table on nine points — a position that reflects a team capable of producing attacking bursts, but not yet entirely consistent. Their recent string features notable domestic victories over FC Köln and Celta de Vigo in midweek friendlies, while the Europa exit underlined some defensive vulnerabilities on the road.

Heidenheim travel north in a precarious position. Occupying 17th, they have managed just three points from five matches and have conceded ten goals in that span. Their league form reads as a side under pressure: narrow progress in a 2-1 win over FC Augsburg sparks hope, but losses to Hamburg, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig highlight an inability to consistently contain top-flight attacks. The contrast between the two sides is stark in the underlying numbers — Stuttgart averages nearly 110 attacks per game and registers 14.6 shots on average, while Heidenheim’s attacking volume sits largely lower at 78.2 attacks and 9.8 shots.

Key trends and tactical outlook

Statistically Stuttgart looks the more dangerous team. Their shots inside the box and high dangerous-attack average suggest they generate the kinds of chances that usually translate into goals at home. They have also kept two clean sheets at home so far, showing the capacity to combine attack with defensive discipline when needed. Heidenheim’s away metrics paint a tougher picture: no clean sheets away, a higher goals-conceded tally and fewer shots on target overall. The head-to-head meeting earlier in the season delivered a narrow 1-0 result in favor of Heidenheim, a reminder that the visitors can be competitive, but that result sits against a backdrop of Heidenheim’s broader struggles this campaign.

The referee Tobias Stieler will take charge in Stuttgart, and the venue — MHPArena — should amplify Stuttgart’s momentum. Maximilian Mittelstädt was the standout in Stuttgart’s recent European outing despite the result, while Mikkel Kaufmann’s performance in Heidenheim’s win over Augsburg provided a reminder that the visitors do carry match-winners who can tilt a close game.

Betting suggestion

Given the clear statistical edge for the hosts, their home form, the attacking pressure they consistently generate and the market pricing offering VfB Stuttgart as strong favourites at 1.43 (approximately 69.9% implied probability), the most sensible single-market pick is the 1X2 market: back VfB Stuttgart to win. The data favors a home victory while Heidenheim’s defensive struggles and modest attacking numbers away from home make the away upset a low-probability outcome.