Prediction Werder Bremen vs St. Pauli 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 04/10/2025

Match context and what’s at stake

The Weserstadion will be humming on October 4 as Werder Bremen welcome St. Pauli in a clash that feels like a crossroads for both clubs. Werder sit uncomfortably down in 15th with just four points from five games and a defence that has leaked 14 goals already this campaign. St. Pauli, by contrast, occupy ninth and have steadied themselves to seven points, buoyed by sharper attacking numbers and a more balanced goal return. Referee Sören Storks will take charge, and with the stadium capacity at 42,100 there’s scope for a lively atmosphere — something both sets of forwards can feed off.

Recent form and momentum

Werder arrive off a chastening 4-0 defeat to Bayern München; a result that underlined how porous their backline has looked against top opposition. Their sequence across five league matches reads as a rollercoaster—one win, one draw and three defeats—with heavy swings in scorelines. St. Pauli, meanwhile, have shown resilience: only narrow defeats to Leverkusen and Stuttgart separated them from a run that includes clean-sheet success at Hamburger SV and a gritty 2-1 victory over Augsburg. The visitors’ most recent outing was a 1-2 loss at home to Leverkusen where Danel Sinani earned the side’s best player rating, a sign that individual moments can tilt tight games their way.

Tactical snapshot and statistical edge

Despite Werder being the bookmakers’ marginal favorite (2.35 to win versus St. Pauli’s 2.86 and the draw at 3.50), the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story. St. Pauli lead in several attacking metrics: higher total shots (63 to Werder’s 54), more shots on target (28 to 24), and a markedly higher count of dangerous attacks and corners. Their attacks average of 101 to Werder’s 85.4 suggests St. Pauli are carving more openings, even if they have been less clinical away from home — their away goals tally is modest.

Werder’s home form is troubling: they’ve scored just three at home but conceded six, which underlines vulnerability on their own turf. The head-to-head benchmark from April’s meeting ended 0-0, but patterns this season point to more open play: Werder’s fixtures have all featured goals beyond 2.5, and St. Pauli’s matches have also tended toward scoring contests. Both teams have shown defensive lapses at times, and when either side commits numbers forward they invite risk.

How the game is likely to unfold

Expect an end-to-end encounter. Werder will be under pressure to deliver a positive result in front of their fans and could adopt an assertive approach early on, but their defensive frailties mean St. Pauli’s counterattacking and set-piece threats could be decisive. Conversely, St. Pauli’s capacity to generate dangerous attacks and corners suggests they won’t be content to sit back; they should trouble Werder’s rearguard and any defensive miscommunication could be punished.

H2 Betting suggestion

Given the pattern of high-scoring matches involving Werder this season, combined with St. Pauli’s attacking output and the attacking metrics favoring goal volume, the best selection from the two offered markets is the goal market. Back Over 2.5 goals. The data points — Werder’s 100% over-2.5 rate in their matches, St. Pauli’s tendency to produce and concede goals, and both sides’ willingness to open games up — all support an expectation of three or more goals in this Bundesliga fixture.