Context and form: two relegation scraps collide at London Stadium
The Premier League returns to London Stadium on 06/01/2026 with West Ham United hosting Nottingham Forest in a fixture that smells of a six-pointer. Both clubs sit uncomfortably low in the table — West Ham 18th with 14 points and Nottingham Forest 17th with 18 — and recent results have done little to ease pressure on managers and supporters alike. West Ham arrive off a heavy 3-0 defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers and carry a run that has produced one win, four draws and five losses in their last ten outings. Nottingham Forest have been equally inconsistent: their last outing finished in a 3-1 loss at Aston Villa, and their ten-match summary shows four wins but six defeats, a sequence that masks both fight and fragility.
H2H history this season offers a telling clue: Forest brushed aside West Ham 3-0 earlier in the campaign, a result that still echoes and gives the visitors psychological currency. Individual highlights from the most recent fixtures name Mateus Fernandes as Wolves’ standout against West Ham and Morgan Gibbs-White as Aston Villa’s best in their win over Forest — reminders that both sides have conceded goals to incisive opponents.
Statistical snapshot: goals, chances and defensive headaches
Numbers underline the narrative of defensive vulnerability and attacking inefficiency. West Ham have scored 21 and shipped 41 across 20 matches, managing just one clean sheet at home this season. Nottingham Forest have sent 19 goals past opponents while conceding 33; they boast three clean sheets but their away scoring (7) is modest. Shot metrics suggest Forest produce more volume and danger — 247 total shots and 53.35 dangerous attacks on average compared to West Ham’s 196 shots and 42.05 dangerous attacks — a hint that the visitors might create the clearer chances on the night.
Goal markets look lively: West Ham have seen 65% of their games finish over 2.5 goals, and Forest are over the line in 55% of fixtures. Both sides also show middling BTTS rates, which paired with leaky defenses points toward an open, end-to-end contest rather than a cagey stalemate.
Prediction and key angles to watch
Expect tension, but also chances. West Ham’s home form is troubled, and Nottingham’s attacking volume suggests they can trouble a porous backline. The most realistic scenarios are either an away win or a high-scoring draw, but the balance of probability — supported by Forest’s higher shots and dangerous attacks average — leans toward Nottingham extracting at least a point, with a real shot at three.
For readers building a betting plan, pairing market choices with timing and money management is crucial; for a refresher on how to choose markets and shape strategy see this guide on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets, and if you’re focusing on totals don’t miss advice on the right time to place bets on goal markets.
Betting suggestion: Back Over 2.5 goals. Given both teams’ defensive records, the high proportion of matches finishing above 2.5 goals for West Ham (65%) and a solid 55% for Nottingham Forest, plus recent matches producing multiple goals, the goal market offers the best value here rather than a straight 1X2 punt.
