Prediction Zagłębie Lubin vs Arka Gdynia 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Ekstraklasa on 29/09/2025

Match preview

The curtain rises on round 10 of the Ekstraklasa with Stadion Zagłębia Lubin set to host a compelling encounter between Zagłębie Lubin and Arka Gdynia on 29 September 2025. Lubin arrive with confidence from a recent cup victory, and their league numbers suggest a side capable of producing goals at home. Arka Gdynia, conversely, are struggling for consistency and goals on the road, making this fixture a tasty test of home power against an away side that has shown grit but not much cutting edge.

Form, momentum and the numbers that matter

Zagłębie Lubin carry momentum from a 0-2 extra-time cup win and have been productive in the Ekstraklasa season so far: 16 goals scored and 13 conceded across eight matches, earning 10 points and occupying 10th place. Their home figures are particularly telling — 11 goals scored at home and an over 2.5 frequency of 75%, which signals they know how to open games up in front of their supporters. Total shots (99) and a healthy shots-on-target count (28) confirm an attack that creates chances regularly.

Arka Gdynia have fought hard but lack cutting power, managing only five goals in nine league fixtures and sitting 15th with nine points. Their away numbers are worrying for neutrals: just one away goal recorded and eight conceded, despite a respectable three clean sheets overall. Arka’s overall shot volume (87) and attacks average (84) suggest they attempt to build play, yet conversion into goals has been scarce. Recent cup success gives them a morale boost, but their league form reads as fragile — only two wins from nine and a run with more defeats than victories.

Head-to-head history is thin in recent seasons; the most recent meeting noted here was a 2021 Polish Cup tie won by Arka. That memory might linger, but the present indicators lean toward the home side.

Tactical expectations and match flow

Expect Lubin to press for control and to keep the game open. Their home attacking averages and tendency for higher-scoring matches imply they will look to force the tempo and create a high volume of chances. Arka will likely try to absorb pressure, rely on defensive organisation and hits on the break, but their low away scoring record makes a successful counter more difficult. Clean-sheet odds favor home pressure undermining Arka’s defensive resilience.

Betting suggestion

Back Zagłębie Lubin to win (1) in the match-winner market. The bookmakers price the home victory at 2.12, reflecting a clear edge for Lubin given their superior home scoring record, recent cup momentum and Arka’s struggles to score away. A cautious stake is advisable given both sides’ recent inconsistencies, but the value on a home win stands out as the strongest single-market play from the available data.