How to piece together David Stearns’ unenviable Mets offseason puzzle

David Stearns’ top offseason priority is fixing the Mets’ run prevention, but the rotation is full of question marks — from David Peterson’s inconsistency to Kodai Senga’s health and several unproven youngsters. For bettors: be cautious on Mets starter props and early-season innings/strikeout markets; consider buying unders on Mets team totals or targeting opponents’ run lines until the rotation proves stability.

Mets’ Offseason Mission: Run Prevention Above All

David Stearns has repeatedly stated that shoring up run prevention is the Mets’ chief task after the team’s 2025 collapse. That directive frames every move this offseason, yet the pieces available present more questions than answers. Improving the pitching staff is the stated goal, but the club must thread together a reliable rotation and bullpen from an uncertain mix of veterans and youngsters.

Rotation Question Marks

Veteran performance swings

David Peterson remains a wild card: is he an All-Star-caliber arm or destined for a second-half slide? Sean Manaea’s recent work prompts the same split evaluation — which Manaea will show up? Kodai Senga’s talent is undeniable when healthy, but durability is an ongoing concern after an inability to rejoin the active roster late last year.

Young arms facing major-league tests

Prospects Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong and Christian Scott all enter with upside, but none have proven they can absorb a full big-league workload. Each carries uncertainties about stamina and consistency, and relying on them at scale adds risk to the team’s run-prevention plan.

Bullpen Moves and Role Changes

Clay Holmes’ conversion back to a high-leverage reliever is a positive note — he produced strong results after the switch. Still, the bullpen’s overall stability depends on how many rotation workloads the front office can reliably limit, and whether internal depth can withstand injuries or ineffectiveness.

What This Means for Bettors

Bookmakers and punters should expect volatility from Mets pitching lines early in the season. Starter props (innings, strikeouts) may carry elevated risk until rotation health and consistency are proven. A cautious strategy: consider under bets on Mets team run totals or backing opponents’ run lines in matchups where unproven starters are projected to go deep, and look for value once the rotation’s pecking order and durability become clearer.

David Stearns mentioned repeatedly that Job 1 this offseason, after the 2025 disaster, is to improve the Mets in the area of “run prevention.” Yet look at the pieces he has to fit together:

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