College Football Playoff rematches set: Alabama‑Oklahoma, Miami‑Texas A&M, Tulane‑Ole Miss, James Madison‑Oregon. Expect defensive chess matches — consider the under in Alabama‑Oklahoma and favor home‑field small spreads for Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Oregon. Bettors should prioritize pressure rates, QB health and run‑defense splits when sizing sides and player props.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma — Rematch in Norman
Game outlook
Oklahoma hosts Alabama in a rematch after a 23-21 Sooners win in Week 12. Both programs are making playoff appearances under new head coaches. The winner advances to face Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
Alabama pass game vs. Oklahoma pressure
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been heavily blitzed late in the season; opponents blitzed him on roughly 45% of dropbacks from Week 7 on, and those looks produced a below‑average passing grade and multiple turnover‑worthy plays. Oklahoma’s blitz packages were effective in the prior meeting, and repeating that approach could force Simpson into mistakes.
Alabama run game vs. Oklahoma front
The Crimson Tide have struggled to generate explosive runs (around 4.0 yards per carry) and were limited to roughly 3.7 yards per carry in the first matchup. Jam Miller’s availability helps Alabama, but Oklahoma ranks among the nation’s best at stopping the run and will try to force Alabama into one‑dimensional football.
Oklahoma passing and quarterback health
John Mateer started the season at a high level but dipped after a hand injury. Oklahoma needs a rebound from Mateer to challenge Alabama’s top‑tier secondary, which grades very well in coverage. A three‑week layoff could help, but accuracy and decision‑making will determine outcomes.
Oklahoma run game vs. Alabama discipline
Oklahoma relies heavily on designed quarterback runs and option elements. Alabama has been solid overall against the run but less consistent defending read‑option plays. Linebacker discipline and tackling fundamentals will be key.
Betting implication
Low total likely; look at under plays and consider Alabama moneyline value if you expect the Tide to clean up turnovers. Home‑field edge favors Oklahoma in close spreads.
Prediction
Alabama 21, Oklahoma 17 — a defensive, low‑scoring affair with turnover margin deciding the winner.
Miami (FL) vs. Texas A&M — Hurricanes visit College Station
Game outlook
Miami and Texas A&M, the two teams that beat Notre Dame, play for a quarterfinal date with Ohio State. Miami’s balanced attack and elite pass rush meet an Aggies team that started 11-0 and boasts strong offensive line play.
Miami passing game vs. Aggies’ secondary
Freshman Malachi Toney has been a boom player, elite after the catch and explosive on screens. Texas A&M defends screens extremely well, so limiting Toney’s YAC is the clear defensive priority.
Miami run game vs. Texas A&M run defense
Miami’s run blocking and backfield have been efficient; the Aggies have yielded big rushing numbers this season, especially after contact. Miami can attack the second level and should look to exploit Texas A&M’s tackling and pursuit issues.
Texas A&M passing vs. Miami pressure
Marcel Reed is turnover‑prone and inconsistent under complex coverage. He performs better when blitzed than when facing multi‑level zone looks, so Miami’s ability to generate pressure with four rushers could force mistakes.
Texas A&M run game vs. Miami edge defenders
The Aggies feature strong right‑side run blocking that has produced better looks to that side. Miami’s edge rushers and linebackers will need to win one‑on‑one matchups to prevent breakout runs.
Betting implication
High variance game for props: Reed’s turnover tendencies make live ML or player prop hedging attractive. Lean toward Miami if lines undervalue a road team with pass rush upside; totals dependent on clock management and turnover flow.
Prediction
Miami 28, Texas A&M 24 — Miami’s defense and balanced offense find enough to advance.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss — Green Wave travel to Oxford
Game outlook
Ole Miss dominated a Week 4 meeting, but personnel changes and game planning can alter short‑term dynamics. The winner gets Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Tulane passing game vs. Ole Miss coverage and blitzing
Tulane’s efficient passing attack can be stalled by man coverage and increased blitzing; the Week 4 encounter saw the Green Wave struggle when Ole Miss mixed man and pressure. Clean pass protection and quick reads are essential.
Tulane run game vs. Ole Miss front
Tulane has a late‑season running back breakout in Jamauri McClure, which adds explosiveness. Ole Miss defends off‑tackle reasonably well, but Tulane’s edge speed could test the Rebels’ discipline.
Ole Miss pass and deep threat
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss excels downfield and completed multiple deep shots in the earlier matchup. Tulane’s secondary has been vulnerable to deep passes and must tighten coverage to prevent chunk plays.
Ole Miss run game vs. Tulane run defense
Ole Miss produced 241 rushing yards in the previous meeting; Tulane’s run defense ranks low nationally. Expect the Rebels to attack on the ground again to control tempo.
Betting implication
Ole Miss looks like a comfortable favorite — consider backing the Rebels to cover against a Tulane unit that struggles to stop the run. Player props on Ole Miss rushers also present value if run defense numbers hold.
Prediction
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 17 — Rebels impose their run game and vertical passing to cruise.
James Madison vs. Oregon — Dukes head to Eugene
Game outlook
Oregon hosts James Madison in a contrast of high‑tempo offense and physical run‑heavy Dukes. The Ducks advance with a win to face Texas Tech in the quarterfinals.
James Madison passing and run balance
Alonza Barnett III has surged since returning from injury, pairing smart downfield passing with designed runs. The Dukes emphasize the run but generate explosive plays when passing downfield.
James Madison run game vs. Oregon front
The Dukes rank highly in rushing efficiency and EPA per run; Oregon’s run defense is solid but must avoid giving up edge production. Containing outside runs will be critical.
Oregon passing game vs. Dukes coverage
Dante Moore is among the nation’s top graded quarterbacks and has thrived against man coverage. James Madison’s discipline and pass rush must pressure him to limit big plays.
Oregon run game vs. Dukes edge containment
Oregon attacks off‑tackle and with multiple backs who create explosive off‑tackle production. JMadison ranks elite in defending edge runs, so this matchup of trench play will decide time of possession.
Betting implication
Oregon’s combination of elite pass protection and explosive run game makes them a strong favorite at home; consider Ducks to cover and target rushing/receiving props for Oregon skill players. Look for JMadison to keep the spread tighter if their pass rush lands early.
Prediction
Oregon 34, James Madison 17 — Ducks win at home behind balanced offense and limiting explosive plays.
Final notes for bettors and viewers
Key betting factors across the slate include pressure rates, turnover propensity, run‑defense splits (especially vs. off‑tackle and QB runs), and recent injuries. Early lines may underprice defensive momentum in rematches; adjust stakes when a team showed clear tactical advantages in the prior meeting.
Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman break down all four games in the first round of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff.
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