With both defenses among the NFL’s worst, expect a high-scoring Cowboys-Commanders game — bet the OVER 50.5 and consider Dak Prescott OVER 274.5 passing yards. Washington’s QB injury and weak pass defense boost the chance of explosive plays, while Chris Rodriguez Jr. and CeeDee Lamb offer attractive anytime/long-play prop opportunities for punters.
Cowboys vs Commanders Preview: Christmas Day Sets Up For Shootout
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Washington on Christmas Day in a matchup with little playoff implication but plenty of betting intrigue. Both teams struggled in 2025, and matchup dynamics — a depleted Washington offense and two of the league’s worst defenses — suggest points and big plays could dominate.
Where both teams stand
Dallas has already been eliminated from postseason contention and has dropped three straight after a Thanksgiving upset. Washington is 4-11 and has been decimated by injuries, most notably with the team ruling its starting quarterback out for the season. That absence significantly alters game script and playcalling for the Commanders.
Defensive mismatches that matter
This pairing features two defenses near the bottom of key efficiency metrics: both rank in the low 30s in opponent EPA per play and yards per play, and are also among the worst in scoring defense. Combined, they’ve allowed an elevated points-per-game total, which favors the over and aggressive passing attacks.
Betting Angles and Best Props
With defensive metrics leaning toward offense, the primary market to consider is the game total. Individual player markets also line up well given matchup weaknesses.
Game total
The combined defensive struggles and offensive personnel changes point to a high game total. Backing the OVER is a straightforward play here given both teams’ difficulty stopping explosive plays and consistent scoring issues.
Dak Prescott and the passing game
Washington’s secondary has been porous this season, ranking near the bottom in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed and dead last in EPA/Pass. Prescott produced 264 yards and three TDs in the earlier meeting this year and has passed for 275+ yards in six games (four of his last five). Consider a Prescott passing yards OVER for this matchup.
Explosive-receiver opportunity: CeeDee Lamb
The Commanders have given up a high number of receptions of 40+ yards this season, creating ideal conditions for a vertical threat to cash a longest reception prop. CeeDee Lamb is the clear target to exploit that vulnerability.
Running back touchdown potential: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Washington’s backfield has been in flux, but Chris Rodriguez Jr. has taken an expanded role and has found the end zone multiple times recently. The Cowboys have allowed a large number of rushing touchdowns this year, making an anytime TD or running-back touchdown play a viable contrarian take.
Key Injuries and Game Factors
Quarterback situation
Washington’s starter is out for the season, forcing reliance on a backup who will likely impact play-calling and increase passing volume for Dallas.
Defensive health and matchups
Both secondaries have struggled to contain big plays. The quarterbacks and lead receivers will look to exploit mismatches downfield, while both teams may lean on passing to move quickly against shaky defenses.
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Top Picks Summary
- OVER 50.5 (game total) — favors points given two weak defenses. - Dak Prescott OVER ~274.5 passing yards — matchup and season trends support it. - Chris Rodriguez Jr. anytime TD — increased role and Cowboys’ rush-TD susceptibility. - CeeDee Lamb longest reception OVER ~26.5 yards — Washington’s tendency to allow explosive catches.
Use these angles to structure wagers — game total, QB/receiver yardage props, and an RB touchdown play are the clearest edges based on matchup data. Odds change, so confirm numbers before placing bets.
Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders matchup in Week 17.
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