What the Raiders Must Do About Geno Smith’s Slump

Geno Smith’s seven interceptions through four games and multiple three-INT outings make the Raiders a risky pick — bettors should avoid Las Vegas moneyline, lean toward Smith interception props (over) or the game under as the offense struggles to push the ball downfield.

Geno Smith’s Turnovers Sink Raiders, QB Outlook Darkens

Early-season numbers raise alarm

Geno Smith has emerged as one of the NFL’s most turnover-prone starters in 2025, throwing seven interceptions in four games — the league lead. What was advertised as a top-15 upgrade has instead looked like a liability, with repeated giveaways derailing Las Vegas’ offensive rhythm.

Costly performance vs. the Bears

Against Chicago, Smith’s turnovers forced a conservative game plan that stalled drives and neutralized the Raiders’ offensive attack. It marked his second three-interception game this season; only one outing so far has gone without a turnover, and that came in a blowout loss.

Production doesn’t offset mistakes

Smith did throw two touchdown passes in the recent game, but passing output was limited — barely over 100 yards and an average air yards per attempt of just 4.8. The usual tradeoff of high-volume scoring to balance interceptions hasn’t materialized, leaving the Raiders short of impact passing plays.

How much blame lies elsewhere?

The offensive line has been a problem, but repeated poor decisions and a reluctance to push the ball downfield have compounded issues. When turnovers mount, Smith has looked rattled, shifting to conservative, short passing that fails to change game momentum.

Depth chart questions and roster options

With Smith’s struggles, benching is no longer a fringe debate. Options like Kenny Pickett or Aidan O’Connell (when healthy) are being discussed as alternatives if decline continues. The decision will hinge on whether coaching staff sees immediate improvement or opts for a shake-up.

Betting and matchup implications

For bettors, the optics are clear: the Raiders are a risky offensive bet while Smith’s turnover trend persists. Consider targeting quarterback interception props (Smith over), under on team total points or game total, and avoiding Las Vegas moneyline futures until the passing attack proves more consistent.

What to watch next

Key indicators to monitor: Smith’s decision-making under pressure, average depth of target (air yards), sack/pressure rates, and whether coaches adjust scheme to protect or replace him. A short-term turnaround could stabilize Las Vegas, but continued giveaways will force tougher personnel choices.

What can the Las Vegas Raiders do about Geno Smith?

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