Kirk Cousins’ resurgence amid Michael Penix Jr.’s knee injury complicates Atlanta’s QB outlook; bettors should favor Cousins in short-term game and passing props while avoiding long-term Falcons QB futures given cap and health uncertainty.
Kirk Cousins: Playing on an "Expiring Contract" but Producing on the Field
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Kirk Cousins framed his present approach in familiar terms: focus on the moment and let the future sort itself out. The 14-year veteran said he feels like he’s playing on an “expiring contract” this season, despite being under contract through 2027. He shrugged off the drama and emphasized enjoying the game and competing for the team now.
“Everything is on the table,” the coach added about offseason decisions, but Cousins was clear: “If it’s not guaranteed, it’s not guaranteed. That’s kind of how NFL contracts work.”
Performance Reminder: Cousins Still Has It
Cousins has shown he can still deliver in key spots, highlighted by a 373-yard, three-touchdown outing against Tampa Bay last week. He has started five games this season, often filling in while the team’s top receiver was sidelined. His EPA per dropback ranks 33rd this season (minus-0.05) but has surged to 15th (0.04) over the past three weeks, suggesting recent play has been markedly better.
“I’ve kind of lived it, and you understand that you just focus on the here and now,” Cousins said, describing his comfort with uncertainty.
Falcons' QB Room, Cap Numbers and Roster Questions
The Falcons face uncomfortable math if they keep Cousins beyond this season. His 2026 and 2027 cap hit would be roughly $57.5 million annually, representing about 18–19% of a projected salary cap. Atlanta paid about $100 million of his signing through 2025 and still faces large cap counts—$115 million combined over the next two seasons under current structures—though a post-June 1 cut could limit dead-cap to roughly $35 million over two years.
Head coach Raheem Morris reiterated Penix remains the “quarterback of the future,” but cautioned of the need to protect against injury risk and to evaluate at season’s end. “We will all sit down at the end of the season and have those discussions and talk about those things,” he said.
Penix’s Injury Timeline and Implications
Michael Penix Jr. suffered a knee injury on Nov. 16 and is currently sidelined, leaving his Week 1 readiness for next season in doubt. Even healthy, he would face a limited offseason and come off a checkered injury history: he’ll be 26 next season and remains unproven as a long-term starter. Before the injury, Penix’s metrics were lagging — 25th in EPA per dropback (0.00) and 29th in completion percentage (60.1), with one of the highest off-target rates leaguewide, per TruMedia.
Morris defended last year’s decision to turn to Penix and did not express regret for the unconventional handling of the position, while acknowledging the results did not meet expectations late last season.
Coaching, Job Security and Decision Drivers
Coaching stability could influence the final decision on Cousins’ future. Morris acknowledged his own job security questions and suggested personnel choices might look different under new leadership. The organization must weigh immediate competitive needs, salary-cap consequences, Penix’s health trajectory and long-term roster-building strategy before committing.
Betting and Fantasy Outlook
Short-term betting: With Penix sidelined and Cousins producing, short-term markets (game starters, passing yards and TD props) likely favor Cousins. Expect lines to reflect his recent hot stretch; bettors can find value in Cousins passing props and game totals while he’s clearly the starter.
Long-term betting: Avoid or be cautious with long-term Falcons quarterback futures and 2026 QB props due to the team’s cap dilemmas and Penix’s uncertain recovery. Market volatility is likely as offseason decisions and potential roster/leadership changes become clearer.
Bottom Line
Cousins has answered questions on the field recently, but financial realities and Penix’s place in the organization make his long-term future in Atlanta unclear. For now, he’s the immediate solution, and bettors should prioritize short-term markets while treating long-range Falcons QB futures with skepticism until the offseason provides clarity.
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Cousins said Wednesday he feels as if he's playing on an "expiring contract" even though he has two years left on his Atlanta deal.
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