VAR overturned Semenyo’s strike after a marginal offside on Erling Haaland, but Manchester City won 2-0 with Rayan Cherki’s 98th-minute goal. For bettors: expect tighter markets — back City to progress but avoid clean-sheet specials; consider betting on late goals/‘win to progress’ or Newcastle +1 Asian handicap as value given VAR uncertainty and extended stoppage time.
VAR controversy mars Carabao Cup semi at St. James’ Park
Antoine Semenyo thought he had given Newcastle the lead before a lengthy VAR check wiped out Manchester City’s second goal in a stoppage-time swing of fortune. The intervention came after Semenyo’s 63rd-minute effort — and a subsequent review that focused on Erling Haaland’s positioning — prompted referee Chris Kavanagh to consult the pitchside monitor.
How the disallowed goal unfolded
Semenyo initially put Newcastle ahead, then struck again in the 63rd minute, directing a close-range effort off his knee that beat goalkeeper Nick Pope. Replays showed Haaland close to the goalmouth, standing near defender Malick Thiaw and Pope. VAR zoomed in on Haaland’s right boot and superimposed lines suggested he was fractionally ahead of Thiaw.
VAR decision and stadium reaction
After a pause of more than four minutes, the on-field decision was changed: Haaland was judged to be in an offside position and impacting Thiaw’s ability to play the ball. The announcement drew loud cheers from the home crowd, who had already been frustrated by the length of the review. The manner of the check adds to ongoing debate about marginal offside interventions.
Stoppage-time drama — Cherki snatches late advantage for City
The controversy turned on its head deep in stoppage time. VAR reviews contributed to a lengthy nine minutes of added time, and Rayan Cherki seized the moment with a 98th-minute strike to make it 2-0. City leave St. James’ Park with a two-goal cushion to defend in the second leg at the Etihad.
Tie implications and what to expect in the second leg
Manchester City’s late winner gives them clear control heading into the return fixture, but Newcastle will feel aggrieved and dangerous on the counter. The narrow margins and VAR involvement mean the tie is far from settled: a single away goal for Newcastle in the second leg would shift momentum dramatically.
Betting and tactical takeaways
Punters should note the impact of VAR on game timing and market pricing. Markets may underprice late-goal potential and overestimate clean-sheet chances for favourites in knockout ties with VAR intervention. Value options include City to progress outright, bets on late goals (over 1.5 or over 2.5 totals with stoppage-time consideration), or Newcastle +1 Asian handicap for insurance against marginal decisions. Expect shorter odds for City in match-winner markets but caution on clean-sheet or large-margin bets.
Managerial and player notes
The decision will raise questions about how teams prepare for VAR scenarios and the psychological impact of overturned goals. For Newcastle, Semenyo’s efforts were decisive in causing problems for City; for City, Cherki’s late intervention underlines the depth of attacking options available late in games. The refereeing team’s use of pitchside review will almost certainly be dissected in the build-up to the Etihad rematch.
Ex-Juventus striker explains why Spalletti ‘needs’ David
The Man City winger scored from a corner only for the goal to be ruled out through a controversial VAR intervention
The Independent
