The Cowboys' playoff odds sit at about 1% — they must win three straight while the Eagles lose all three. For bettors, avoid longshot futures on Dallas to make the postseason; instead consider selective game-by-game wagers if lines soften on the Cowboys, but steer clear of season-long parlays hinging on this unlikely scenario.
Dallas Cowboys' Playoff Hopes Reduced to a Mathematical Long Shot
The Dallas Cowboys remain alive in the playoff race, but only by the slimmest of margins. Current projections put their chances at roughly 1%. There is a single, specific path that keeps Dallas breathing: the Cowboys must win all three of their remaining games and the Philadelphia Eagles must lose all three of theirs.
The Lone Path: What Must Happen
The only scenario that sends Dallas to the postseason requires: Cowboys: win vs. Chargers, win at Commanders, win at Giants Eagles: lose at Commanders, lose at Bills, lose vs. Commanders
That combination of results would vault Dallas over the Eagles in the standings. Practically speaking, the sequence demands near-perfect play from Dallas and a collapse from Philadelphia — a highly unlikely convergence.
Why the Odds Are So Low
Two factors make the probability microscopic. First, the Cowboys must sweep three opponents, including two road games, to even qualify. Second, the Eagles would need to lose twice to the same opponent (the Commanders) within a short span and also fall to the Bills. Both elements are unlikely to align.
Betting Implications and Market Strategy
For punters, the takeaway is straightforward: - Avoid futures bets on the Cowboys to reach the playoffs; the price does not justify the near-zero chance. - Consider single-game plays if lines move in Dallas’ favor, especially against the Chargers, but treat these as situational wagers rather than season-defining bets. - Markets are unlikely to shift dramatically until Week 17 results provide clarity, so large speculative parlays tied to Dallas making the postseason carry high risk. - If you prefer safety, back the Eagles to clinch — their path is far less precarious.
Bottom Line
There is still a mathematical door open for the Cowboys, but the odds are stacked heavily against them. Bettors should treat Dallas’ playoff chances as an unlikely long shot and plan wagers accordingly.
The chances are getting quite slim.
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