Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship after Bo Nix’s ankle injury. Betting implication: expect Broncos’ moneyline to shorten slightly due to their strong defense, but Patriots are likelier favorites. Punters may prefer backing New England or taking Broncos +spread/alternate lines; under on the total could be smart if Stidham runs a conservative game with limited passing volume.
Broncos Turn to Jarrett Stidham for AFC Championship
Sean Payton has to show confidence in Jarrett Stidham, and he’s doing just that. With the AFC championship game looming, Stidham will start for the Denver Broncos after Bo Nix suffered a broken bone in his ankle late in Saturday’s win. Payton has publicly backed Stidham’s readiness and poise, emphasizing three years of daily work in the NFL with the quarterback that coaches and staff have seen behind closed doors.
Payton’s Case for Stidham
Payton highlighted Stidham’s knowledge of the scheme, work ethic and mental processing as key reasons he believes the quarterback can handle the moment. “He will be ready to go and ready for the moment,” Payton said. That vote of confidence matters inside the building, even if Stidham’s game experience is limited.
Stidham’s Experience, Preseason Form and What It Means
Stidham has started just four NFL games and did not throw a pass in the past two seasons, but he has shown flashes. In one preseason campaign he went 30 of 38 for 376 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Late in the 2023 regular season he completed 40 of 66 passes for 496 yards, two touchdowns and one interception across two starts. The Broncos also invested in him this offseason with a two-year, $12 million extension, signaling organizational faith.
Historical Context
If he starts, Stidham will be among the least experienced QBs ever to start a conference championship, but there are precedents of inexperienced signal-callers leading teams deep into the postseason — success is possible when veterans and defenses carry their teams.
Broncos’ Defensive Backbone and Game Plan
Denver’s defense has been the season’s foundation, and it will be asked to limit mistakes while Stidham settles into the lineup. Expect a conservative offensive script that emphasizes ball control and minimizes high-risk throws. Payton’s challenge is balancing protection of his quarterback with the need to produce enough offense to win a one-game, high-stakes matchup.
Playoff Fallout: Team-by-Team Takeaways
Bills: Front Office Changes and Urgency
Buffalo replaced its head coach in the wake of the playoff exit but kept its general manager and added a new title. The roster around Josh Allen remains a priority to upgrade, especially at receiver and along the offensive line. Allen’s turnovers in the Broncos game highlighted the need for better supporting pieces.
49ers: Christian McCaffrey Workload Concerns
Christian McCaffrey posted an extraordinary 2,126 yards from scrimmage after missing nearly all of the prior season. He carried a massive workload — 450 touches across the year — raising legitimate questions about regression and durability next season. Historically, backs with 400+ touches in a season have regression risk.
Texans: Building Around C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud remains the franchise cornerstone, but Houston must improve personnel around him. The offensive line and additional skill-position help are obvious offseason priorities after a season in which Stroud showed promise but lacked consistent support.
Bears: Positive Momentum
Chicago exits with optimism. Young offensive talent made strides under a new coaching staff, and the team looks better positioned than in recent years. With sensible offseason moves, the Bears could build on this unexpected NFC North title and improve their defense.
Outlook and Betting Implications
Stidham’s start pushes the Broncos into an underdog/managed-risk profile for bettors. Expect conservative play-calling that favors lower totals and reliance on the defense. Punters should consider market movement: Patriots or favorites on the spread may be attractive, while Broncos backers might seek fuller spreads or alternate lines. Game scripts that limit Stidham’s passing volume increase the appeal of under and team-total unders.
Brad Holmes: Lions are "looking at everything" for next offensive coordinator
The Broncos will be without Bo Nix for the rest of this postseason.
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