Man City’s January push for Marc Guehi — potentially via a Nathan Ake-plus-cash swap — could tighten City’s defence quickly. Betting impact: a Guehi arrival would likely shorten Man City’s odds for wins and clean sheets and push markets toward under 2.5 goals, while Palace’s expected defensive weakening could inflate goals-against and over markets for their remaining fixtures.
Marc Guehi transfer update: City step up amid defensive crisis
Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi is out of contract this summer and is widely expected to leave on a free transfer. Manchester City have renewed interest in a January deal after injuries to Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol created an immediate defensive need. Several top clubs have been linked to Guehi, but City’s urgency has accelerated talks this month.
Palace position and valuation
Palace face a dilemma: cash in now or keep their captain for the run-in. Guehi nearly joined Liverpool for about £40m in the summer, and Palace are believed to want a similar fee for a mid-season sale. Selling for a token fee such as £20m would weaken the squad for the remainder of the 2025/26 campaign, yet buyers know Guehi will be available for free in six months.
Nathan Ake swap emerges as practical solution
Former club executive Keith Wyness has suggested a cash-plus-player deal involving Nathan Ake would "make all the sense in the world." The logic: Palace would receive immediate compensation plus an experienced replacement, while City would secure Guehi without parting with a large cash fee outright. Wyness described Ake as a useful, still-capable player who could provide short-term cover.
City’s squad context and Ake’s role
Pep Guardiola has shuffled his defensive options since Dias and Gvardiol were sidelined, recalling Max Alleyne from loan and starting Nathan Ake at left-back in recent matches. Ake’s performances this season have been mixed, and the return of Rayan Ait‑Nouri from the Africa Cup of Nations could displace him. That uncertainty may reduce Ake’s attractiveness as a pure makeweight for Palace.
How a deal could work — and why it might not
A swap plus cash satisfies several practical needs: Palace secure cover and funds; City plug an immediate gap. Still, football deals are complex and often stumble on wages, player preference, exact valuation and timing. Palace might prefer holding out for a higher fee in the summer rather than disrupt their season for a short-term solution.
Betting implications for punters
A confirmed Guehi move to City would strengthen Pep Guardiola’s backline and is likely to shorten City’s odds in upcoming fixtures and futures markets. Expect increased activity on City clean-sheet markets and lower total-goals lines (under 2.5). Conversely, Palace losing their captain could see markets react by raising odds on Palace conceding more goals, boosting over-goals and opponent-goals props. Punters should monitor official confirmations, squad selection and manager comments before staking.
Manchester City should consider a swap deal with Nathan Ake to sign Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi in the January transfer window.
Football365
